Hidden Markov Model of the Control System Latent Failures of Technological Cell

Yuriy Obzherin, Mikhail Nikitin, Stanislav Sidorov
In the process of functioning of the information system described by the semi-Markov model, it is not always possible, when its states change, to obtain all the information contained in the state codes of the semi-Markov model. However, it is possible to obtain some signal (information) associated with a semi-Markov process. In this case, the states of the semi-Markov model can be considered hidden (unobservable). There are problems of correcting the model, predicting the states of the simulated information system and analyzing its dynamics on the basis of the received vector of signals. To solve these problems, you can use the apparatus of the theory of hidden Markov models. In this paper, a hidden Markov model of the control system is constructed on the basis of the semi-Markov model of the control system for latent failures of a technological cell. The hidden Markov model is used to assess the characteristics of the control system and predict its states based on the received signal vector. The constructed hidden Markov model makes it possible to expand the possibilities the used semi-Markov model application.